Trading institutions and price discovery: the cash and futures markets for crude oil

We provide substantial evidence that the futures market for West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased the short-term volatility of the cash price of crude oil. We show that the variability of prices increased using both published posted prices and transaction prices for producers. This increased volatility in the price of crude oil may reflect information aggregated into the price, an increase the variance of shocks to the price of crude oil, or noise in the futures price that affects the cash price. We present evidence from experiments consistent with the interpretation that information aggregation not feasible in a posted-price market can explain at least part of the increase in variance. This evidence supports the proposition that information not previously aggregated into the cash price for crude oil is at least part of the reason for the greater variability of the cash price after the opening of the futures market and provides at least one example in which a futures market increased the volatility of the cash market, and prices became more efficient.

Current Landscape of Targeted Therapies for Hormone-Receptor Positive, HER2 Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer

The majority of deaths from MBC are in patients with hormone receptor (HR) positive, HER2 negative disease. Endocrine therapy (ET) remains the backbone of treatment in these cases, improving survival and quality of life. However, treatment can lose effectiveness due to primary or acquired endocrine resistance. Analysis of mechanisms of ET resistance has led to the development of a new generation of targeted therapies for advanced breast cancer. In addition to anti-estrogen therapy with selective estrogen receptor modulators, aromatase inhibitors, and/or selective estrogen receptor degraders, combinations with cyclin dependent kinase (CDK) 4/6 inhibitors have led to substantial progression free survival (PFS) improvements in the first and second line settings. While the PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathway is known to be an important growth pathway in HR positive breast cancer, PI3K inhibitors have been disappointing due to modest effect sizes and significant toxicity. The mTOR inhibitor everolimus significantly improves progression free survival when added to ET, and recent studies have improved supportive care allowing less toxicity. While these combination targeted therapies improve outcomes and often delay initiation of chemotherapy, long term overall survival data are lacking and data for the ideal strategy for sequencing these agents remains unclear. Ongoing research evaluating potential biomarkers and mechanisms of resistance is anticipated to continue to improve outcomes for patients with HR positive metastatic breast cancer. In this review, we will discuss management and ongoing challenges in the treatment of advanced HR positive, HER2 negative breast cancer, highlighting single agent and combination endocrine therapies, targeted therapies including palbociclib, ribociclib, abemaciclib, and everolimus, and sequencing of therapies in the clinic

Measuring the Cosmological Geometry from the Lyman Alpha Forest along Parallel Lines of Sight

We discuss the feasibility of measuring the cosmological metric using the redshift space correlation function of the Lya forest in multiple lines of sight, as a function of angular and velocity separation. The geometric parameter that is measured is f(z) = H(z) D(z)/c, where H(z) is the Hubble constant and D(z) the angular diameter distance at redshift z. The correlation function is computed in linear theory. We describe a method to measure it from observations with the Gaussianization procedure of Croft et al (1998) to map the Lya forest transmitted flux to an approximation of the linear density field. The effect of peculiar velocities on the shape of the recovered power spectrum is pointed out. We estimate the error in recovering the f(z) factor from observations due to the variance in the Lya absorbers. We show that ~ 20 pairs of quasars (separations < 3') are needed to distinguish a flat \Omega_0=1 universe from a universe with \Omega_0=0.2, \Omega_\Lambda=0.8. A second parameter that is obtained from the correlation function of the Lya forest is \beta \simeq \Omega(z)^{0.6}/b (affecting the magnitude of the peculiar velocities), where b is a linear theory bias of the Lya forest. The statistical error of f(z) is reduced if b can be determined independently from numerical simulations, reducing the number of quasar pairs needed for constraining cosmology to approximately six. On small scales, where the correlation function is higher, f(z) should be measurable with fewer quasars, but non-linear effects must then be taken into account. The anisotropy of the non-linear redshift space correlation function as a function of scale should also provide a precise quantitative test of the gravitational instability theory of the Lya forest.Comment: submitted to Ap

Radial Redshift Space Distortions

The radial component of the peculiar velocities of galaxies cause displacements in their positions in redshift space. We study the effect of the peculiar velocities on the linear redshift space two point correlation function. Our analysis takes into account the radial nature of the redshift space distortions and it highlights the limitations of the plane parallel approximation. We consider the problem of determining the value of \beta and the real space two point correlation function from the linear redshift space two point correlation function. The inversion method proposed here takes into account the radial nature of the redshift space distortions and can be applied to magnitude limited redshift surveys that have only partial sky coverage.Comment: 26 pages including 11 figures, to appear in Ap

The finite size effect of galaxies on the cosmic virial theorem and the pairwise peculiar velocity dispersions

We discuss the effect of the finite size of galaxies on estimating small-scale relative pairwise peculiar velocity dispersions from the cosmic virial theorem (CVT). Specifically we evaluate the effect by incorporating the finite core radius $r_c$ in the two-point correlation function of mass, i.e. $\xi_\rho(r) \propto (r+r_c)^{-\gamma}$ and the effective gravitational force softening $r_s$ on small scales. We analytically obtain the lowest-order correction term for $\gamma <2$ which is in quantitative agreement with the full numerical evaluation. With a nonzero $r_s$ and/or $r_c$ the cosmic virial theorem is no longer limited to the case of $\gamma<2$. We present accurate fitting formulae for the CVT predicted pairwise velocity dispersion for the case of $\gamma>2$. Compared with the idealistic point-mass approximation ($r_s=r_c=0$), the finite size effect can significantly reduce the small-scale velocity dispersions of galaxies at scales much larger than $r_s$ and $r_c$. Even without considering the finite size of galaxies, nonzero values for $r_c$ are generally expected, for instance, for cold dark matter (CDM) models with a scale-invariant primordial spectrum. For these CDM models, a reasonable force softening r_s\le 100 \hikpc would have rather tiny effect. We present the CVT predictions for the small-scale pairwise velocity dispersion in the CDM models normalized by the COBE observation. The implication of our results for confrontation of observations of galaxy pair-wise velocity dispersions and theoretical predictions of the CVT is also discussed.Comment: 18 pages. LaTeX text and 8 postcript figures. submitted to Ap

The Gravitational Lensing in Redshift-space Correlation Functions of Galaxies and Quasars

The gravitational lensing, as well as the velocity field and the cosmological light-cone warp, changes the observed correlation function of high-redshift objects. We present an analytical expression of 3D correlation function, simultaneously including those three effects. When two objects are separated over several hundreds Mpc along a line of sight, the observed correlation function is dominated by the effect of gravitational lensing rather than the intrinsic clustering. For a canonical lambda-CDM model, the lensing signals in the galaxy-galaxy and galaxy-QSO correlations are beyond noise levels in large-scale redshift surveys like the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, submitted to ApJ

Indications of a positive feedback between coastal development and beach nourishment

Beach nourishment, a method for mitigating coastal storm damage or chronic erosion by deliberately replacing sand on an eroded beach, has been the leading form of coastal protection in the United States for four decades. However, investment in hazard protection can have the unintended consequence of encouraging development in places especially vulnerable to damage. In a comprehensive, parcel-scale analysis of all shorefront single-family homes in the state of Florida, we find that houses in nourishing zones are significantly larger and more numerous than in non-nourishing zones. The predominance of larger homes in nourishing zones suggests a positive feedback between nourishment and development that is compounding coastal risk in zones already characterized by high vulnerability

Exploring Large-scale Structure with Billions of Galaxies

We consider cosmological applications of galaxy number density correlations to be inferred from future deep and wide multi-band optical surveys. We mostly focus on very large scales as a probe of possible features in the primordial power spectrum. We find the proposed survey of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope may be competitive with future all-sky CMB experiments over a broad range of scales. On very large scales the inferred power spectrum is robust to photometric redshift errors, and, given a sufficient number density of galaxies, to angular variations in dust extinction and photometric calibration errors. We also consider other applications, such as constraining dark energy with the two CMB-calibrated standard rulers in the matter power spectrum, and controlling the effect of photometric redshift errors to facilitate the interpretation of cosmic shear data. We find that deep photometric surveys over wide area can provide constraints that are competitive with spectroscopic surveys in small volumes.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, ApJ accepted, references added, expanded discussion in Sec. 3.

The Correlation Function in Redshift Space: General Formula with Wide-angle Effects and Cosmological Distortions

A general formula for the correlation function in redshift space is derived in linear theory. The formula simultaneously includes wide-angle effects and cosmological distortions. The formula is applicable to any pair with arbitrary angle $\theta$ between lines of sight, and arbitrary redshifts, $z_1$, $z_2$, which are not necessarily small. The effects of the spatial curvature both on geometry and on fluctuation spectrum are properly taken into account, and thus our formula holds in a Friedman-Lema\^{\i}tre universe with arbitrary cosmological parameters $\Omega_0$ and $\lambda_0$. We illustrate the pattern of the resulting correlation function with several models, and also show that validity region of the conventional distant observer approximation is $\theta \le 10^\circ$.Comment: 45 pages including 9 figures, To Appear in Astrophys. J. 535 (2000